Context

Every strategic plan begins with a simple question: In what environment does the organization operate, and how might that environment evolve? Traditional environmental analysis often relies on PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal factors). However, the complexity of today’s ecosystems requires a broader, more systemic perspective. The ESTEMPLE* framework extends this logic by adding Media, Ethics, and other relevant factors, offering a richer lens through which to evaluate the macro-environmental forces shaping the organization’s trajectory.

Core Idea

The ESTEMPLE* framework examines eight (or more) dimensions that together capture the external context in which strategy unfolds:

  1. Economic: Growth trends, inflation, employment, consumer confidence, and access to capital.
  2. Social: Demographic shifts, cultural values, consumer behaviours, education levels, and lifestyle changes.
  3. Technological: Emerging technologies, innovation cycles, infrastructure maturity, and digital transformation.
  4. Environmental: Climate risk, sustainability pressures, and resource availability.
  5. Media: The speed, reach, and framing of information through traditional and social channels that influence reputation and trust.
  6. Political: Government stability, regulatory priorities, fiscal and industrial policies.
  7. Legal: Current and upcoming legislation affecting competition, data protection, labour, or industry standards.
  8. Ethical: Societal expectations around integrity, transparency, inclusion, and corporate behaviour.
  9. (Additional, e.g.) Public Health: Health crises, epidemiological risks, and wellness policies influencing workforce availability and consumer behaviour.
  10. Other relevant dimensions.

By analyzing dimensions systematically, the model reveals interdependencies, for example, how environmental policies (E) influence legal frameworks (L), or how media narratives (M) shape social perceptions (S). The goal is not to predict the future but to map its plausible contours and prepare the organization to adapt faster than competitors.

Application

The ESTEMPLE analysis unfolds through five key steps:

  1. Identify relevant factors: Select the variables most likely to impact your sector from the dimensions relevant to your context. For instance, in technology, focus on automation, AI adoption, or cybersecurity; in social, consider demographic aging or shifts in professional expectations.

  2. Evaluate their weight: For each factor, assess its impact (on a –5 to +5 scale) and its probability of occurrence (from 0 to 1). Multiplying these two indicators yields a weighted score that helps prioritize strategic attention.

  3. Estimate their evolution over time: Analyze how each factor is likely to evolve within a relevant timeframe. This projection helps determine whether the trend will intensify, stabilize, or decline, and what that evolution implies for strategic positioning.

  4. Prioritize the most critical elements: From your analysis, extract the top three threats and top three opportunities most likely to shape your organization’s context in the coming years. These key factors will feed directly into your SWOT analysis and guide the formulation of strategic objectives.

  5. Extract insights from combined effects: Identify additional threats or opportunities that emerge when multiple factors interact. Combining trends across dimensions (e.g., technological progress with ethical scrutiny or environmental regulation) reveals complex dynamics that often define tomorrow’s strategic landscape.

Takeaway

ESTEMPLE* is a thinking system for decoding the environment’s complexity. It encourages leaders to move from isolated data points to interconnected patterns and proactive design. By embedding it into the early stages of strategic planning, organizations strengthen their ability to anticipate change, shape narratives, and align their mission with societal evolution.